Is Uber Stock a Buy as the Robotaxi…

This article summarizes general market information for informational purposes. It is not investment advice — stock prices, analyst ratings, and financial metrics change constantly, and any investment decision should be based on your own research and risk tolerance, ideally with input from a licensed financial advisor.

Key Takeaways

Uber (UBER) closed at $69.42 on September 23, 2026, down roughly 28% over the past year and just a few dollars above its 52-week low of $65.41 — even as the underlying business keeps growing.
In a September 22 note, Bank of America analyst Justin Post estimated that Uber and Lyft expect their autonomous vehicle partnerships to begin scaling in 2028, giving rival robotaxi platforms a roughly 18-to-24-month head start.
CEO Dara Khosrowshahi bought about $10 million of Uber stock on the open market on September 10 at a weighted average of $70.96 — his first open-market purchase since 2022 — following a $5.3 million purchase by President and COO Andrew Macdonald a week earlier.
Uber trades near 15 times trailing earnings and about 12 times next-twelve-month free cash flow, multiples typically associated with a slower-growing company, even though bookings have continued growing above 20%.
September brought concrete expansion news: Spain's first national Level 4 robotaxi permit, wider autonomous ride services in Europe, and a Costco delivery rollout to nearly 600 U.S. warehouses across 47 states.

A growing business with a shrinking stock price

Uber's 2026 story is an unusual one: the operating business keeps expanding while the stock keeps sliding. Revenue for 2025 reached $52.02 billion, up 18.28% from the prior year, and analysts tracked by one data service rate the stock a consensus "Buy" with an average 12-month price target above $100 — dramatically higher than where shares trade today. Yet the stock closed September 23 at $69.42, down about 28% over the past year and sitting just above its 52-week low.

The gap between fundamentals and price isn't coming from a weak quarter. Earlier in the year, Uber's stock fell after a quarterly earnings miss and a profit forecast below estimates, with cheaper rides boosting trip counts but pressuring margins, and the company announced a CFO change, with Balaji Krishnamurthy taking over in February. But the bigger, more persistent weight on the stock has been a single strategic question: what happens to a ride-hailing marketplace when the driver becomes a self-driving car owned by someone else?

Why the robotaxi threat suddenly has a calendar

For most of 2026, the robotaxi threat to Uber was a general worry rather than a dated forecast. That changed on September 22, when Bank of America put specific timing around it. The firm's analyst estimated that Uber and its main U.S. rival Lyft expect their own autonomous partnerships to begin scaling meaningfully in 2028 — which, if competing autonomous platforms scale sooner, gives those platforms an 18-to-24-month window to build ride volume before Uber's own AV fleet arrives at scale.

That timeline matters because Uber's autonomous strategy is built on partnerships rather than owning its own fleet — working with Waymo, Nuro, Lucid, Wayve in London, and others — a capital-light approach that also means Uber depends on partners' pace rather than controlling it directly. Competitors like Tesla and Alphabet's Waymo, by contrast, are building and operating their own autonomous vehicles directly, and analysts tracking consumer data have raised concerns about how quickly those rivals may capture demand.

The insider buying signal

Against that backdrop, Uber's leadership made a notable statement with their own money. CEO Dara Khosrowshahi bought 141,000 shares on September 10 at a weighted average price of $70.96, roughly $10 million in total, filed the same day — his first open-market purchase of Uber stock since 2022. President and COO Andrew Macdonald had purchased $5.3 million of stock about a week earlier at $75.83 per share.

The stock initially popped on news of the CEO's purchase but has since drifted back below his entry price to $69.42, meaning a buyer today would be getting in below both executives' purchase prices. Insider buying doesn't guarantee a stock will rise — executives can be wrong about timing like anyone else — but open-market purchases of this size near a 52-week low are generally read as a signal of management confidence in the underlying business, in contrast to the more cautious tone of the Bank of America note published two weeks later.

Expansion continues despite the pressure

Uber isn't standing still while the debate plays out. In September 2026, the company announced Spain's first national Level 4 robotaxi permit, alongside wider autonomous ride services in Europe, and a major expansion of its delivery partnership with Costco to nearly 600 U.S. warehouses across 47 states. Those two announcements together illustrate the dual strategy Uber has been pursuing: building out autonomous mobility through partnerships while continuing to scale its more established delivery and logistics business, which has historically been a significant contributor to growth alongside ride-hailing.

Analysts' longer-term models for the company remain broadly constructive, with one widely followed narrative projecting roughly $80.2 billion in revenue and $11.7 billion in earnings by 2029, while more cautious views — centered on tougher regulation and safety and legal costs — model figures closer to $66.4 billion in revenue and $8.2 billion in earnings, a difference that captures how divided opinion remains on how the autonomous transition ultimately plays out for Uber.

What this means if you're following UBER right now

If you're weighing the bull case, the valuation argument is central. A stock trading near 15 times trailing earnings and 12 times forward free cash flow while still growing bookings above 20% looks inexpensive on paper — but only if the market's robotaxi-disruption fears prove overstated.
If you're weighing the bear case, the 2028 timing is the number to watch. The Bank of America note's core argument is that competitors may have a meaningful window to scale before Uber's partnerships mature, and that window is exactly what the market appears to be pricing in.
If insider buying influences your view, keep it in proportion. Executive purchases near a 52-week low are a real signal of confidence, but they're one data point rather than a forecast, and executives have misjudged timing before.
Either way, track partnership scaling milestones closely. Uber's autonomous strategy depends on partners like Waymo, Nuro, and Wayve reaching commercial scale, so announcements about actual ride volumes — not just permits — will likely matter more than headlines about new agreements.

Frequently Asked Questions

Why is Uber's stock down when its business is still growing? Investors are discounting the risk that autonomous vehicle competitors could capture ride-hailing demand before Uber's own partner-based AV fleet scales, a concern that has weighed on the stock's valuation multiple even as revenue and bookings continue to grow.

Did Uber's CEO really buy stock recently? Yes — CEO Dara Khosrowshahi bought about 141,000 shares, roughly $10 million worth, on September 10, 2026, at a weighted average price of $70.96, his first open-market purchase since 2022. President and COO Andrew Macdonald also bought about $5.3 million of stock a week earlier.

What did Bank of America say about Uber's robotaxi risk? In a September 22 note, analyst Justin Post estimated that Uber and Lyft expect their autonomous vehicle partnerships to begin scaling in 2028, potentially giving rival autonomous platforms an 18-to-24-month head start in building ride volumes.

What is Uber doing in autonomous vehicles right now? Uber works with multiple autonomous partners including Waymo, Nuro, Lucid, and Wayve, and in September 2026 announced Spain's first national Level 4 robotaxi permit alongside wider autonomous ride services in Europe.

Sources & References

TIKR, "Uber Stock Is Down 28%, and the Robotaxi Clock Is Ticking. Its CEO Just Bought $10 Million of Stock Anyway"
Yahoo Finance, "Uber Stock Is Down 28%, and the Robotaxi Clock Is Ticking"
Simply Wall St, "How Robotaxi Permits Will Impact Uber (UBER) Investors"
Simply Wall St, "Uber (UBER) Stock May Look Reasonable Following Spain Robotaxi Permit News"
StockAnalysis.com, "Uber Technologies (UBER) Stock Price & Overview"
MarketScreener, "Uber Technologies Inc. — News"

Is Uber Stock a Buy as the Robotaxi Clock Starts Ticking?